Why Value And Arbitrage Opportunities Occur In Soccer Betting?
Value betting and arbitrage betting are considered to provide some of the best opportunities for big win soccer football. They are different from traditional forms of soccer betting where almost everyone follows the bookies. Find out what these betting types are and how these opportunities can occur if you are a serious soccer punter.
What is Value Betting in Soccer?
Value betting is a recommended soccer winning bet ideas for you if you are after long-term profits. The task of finding additional value on given odds can prove to be rewarding. You should know that finding true value can be a difficult task and requires some practice to perfect.
Bookies will usually focus on balancing the odds to gain an edge based on the outcome of an event. Their focus is also on making predictions where majority of the bets will be placed. Eventually, the odds they offer are based on balancing these two points.
You will be placing value bet based on your own estimates, research, and access to insider information. It is different from the odds offered by the bookmaker.
What is Arbitrage Betting in Soccer?
Arbitrage betting is more about making risk-free profits from betting on soccer than finding how to pick football winners. Because of this risk-free factor associated with it, it is widely popular among football punters.
It is focused on placing simultaneous multiple bets on different markets to take advantage of differential prices. It has less to do with making predictions and betting on both sides – for and against for an event. Also known as ‘sure bets’ and as a bettor you will be placing multiple bets on an event through different betting platforms to make profits no matter what the outcome of the event is.
When Do Value Opportunities Arise?
The different scenarios associated with value betting in soccer are as follows:
i. Huge Public Following
There are many soccer teams that have a huge public following and when these teams have matches that is where you can find value betting opportunities.
- These can be champions from previous year
- Star-studded teams like Real Madrid and Manchester United that have huge fan following
The best value winning bet ideas lie in going against these big and popular teams. The bookmakers are going to adjust the line to simply reflect what the popular opinion is. You can often find better payouts by betting on the underdog, if you strongly believe that it is the less popular team that has the edge.
ii. Learn to Calculate True Probabilities
Once you can identify the games where ‘value’ opportunities lie, you should learn to calculate true probabilities – not the ones claimed and promoted by the bookies. You should learn it the way betting as a business. You will need 2 key figures here:
- Implied probability
- Estimated actual probability
The first probability can be found from the bookmaker odds. It is the second, estimated true probability that you should calculate yourself.
If you think you can convert your feelings or what you strongly believe to be the outcome of a match into numbers, it is going to be difficult. Follow different approaches to do this:
- Less Analytical Way: Evaluate the match and consider all the factors that you usually take into account when predicting the winner. Approach the match as if the two sides were playing a series and focus less on the final outcome or score.
- Formula-based Calculation: This is for serious football betting. Create a list of all the factors that you think will affect the outcome of a match. Apply numbers and importance to each of these factors. These factors can include team speed and coaching team. You can assign a percentage figure to each of these factors based on how important they are.
When evaluating value betting opportunities, it is important to learn not to overreact to the previous match. It is about staying calm like betting as a business. Make sure to take team and/or players’ current form. This should go beyond the last match, especially if it was a high-scoring match or a drub. Such matches don’t actually tell the true form and quality of performance of both sides.
Why Arbitrage Opportunities Occur in Soccer Betting?
As a punter, your goal may just be to profit from arbitrage soccer bets and pursue big win soccer football. Yet, you should understand why such opportunities occur.
The most important reasons include the following:
- There is difference in opinion between bookies
- Bookies respond slowly to last-minute team or other changes
- Bookies are running promotion or are fixated on a specific position
The most common thing is that there is difference of opinion between different bookmakers. However, you should also look out for opportunities where the bookmakers are slow in adjusting their odds where last-minute changes have been made.
How to Make Most of Arbitrage Betting?
If you are into serious football betting and want to make the most of arbitrage betting opportunities, it is important to have funded accounts with multiple bookies. You should also have the time to dedicate to it. This is going to demand lots of effort and discipline as well. You can do it yourself or take advantage of services that can do all the work for you and find arbitrages.
Short-Lived Arbitrage Opportunities
Many bookies are going to regularly adjust their odds based on what the competitors are doing. This means that the opportunities don’t last for long, often for just seconds. Since time-pressure can increase the risk of human errors, the adjustments can also be marred with minor to major errors. This means there is opportunity here but it will still have certain degree of risk associated with it.
Mathematically it can make a lot of sense in arbitrage betting without having to think about how to pick football winners. There will still be risks linked with the process of finding and placing these bets. Similarly, value betting also demands that you specialize in certain a league, tournament, and/or teams. You can find more value when betting on teams and leagues that you are familiar with and have good knowledge of. So keep all these points in mind if you want to make the most of these unique betting opportunities in soccer.